Outlook: Aegon Group (AEG) is a
strong, well performing insurance company. Having come
back from an adverse financial situation in 2002, AEG has the strength to
continue with the power it had shown since it’s inception in 1983 until
2001. Having restructured internally, AEG shows strength and obvious signs of
improvement. This quarters earning growth (as compared to the same quarter
last year) exceeded analyst expectations, delivering an incredible 43.50%
increase. I believe we will see at least this increase on next quarter’s
earnings (to be released in March)
Earnings growth
Since its inception in 1983, the AEGON Group has built a track record
of strong earnings growth.
During 2002 the combined effect of adverse financial markets significantly
affected AEGON's net income.
Asset growth
Peer rankings
AEGON has a leading position among worldwide listed insurers, as the figures
on market capitalization and assets show.
Source: Wall Street Journal Europe, September 27, 2004
Source: Bloomberg, December 31, 2004
Source: Wall Street Journal, September 27, 2004
* Ranking has been changed
VALUATION MEASURES
Market Cap (intraday):
26.83B
Enterprise Value (20-Dec-05)3:
34.16B
Trailing P/E (ttm,
intraday):
11.41
Forward P/E (fye 31-Dec-06)
1:
12.81
PEG Ratio (5 yr expected):
1.94
Price/Sales (ttm):
0.65
Price/Book (mrq):
1.20
Enterprise Value/Revenue
(ttm)3:
0.84
Enterprise Value/EBITDA
(ttm)3:
7.518
FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS
Fiscal Year
Fiscal Year Ends:
31-Dec
Most Recent Quarter (mrq):
30-Sep-05
Profitability
Profit Margin (ttm):
5.62%
Operating Margin (ttm):
10.88%
Management
Effectiveness
Return on Assets (ttm):
0.79%
Return on Equity (ttm):
13.06%
Income Statement
Revenue (ttm):
40.77B
Revenue Per Share (ttm):
27.82
Qtrly Revenue Growth (yoy):
122.50%
Gross Profit (ttm):
38.90B
EBITDA (ttm):
4.54B
Net Income Avl to Common (ttm):
2.49B
Diluted EPS (ttm):
1.47
Qtrly Earnings Growth (yoy):
43.50%
Balance Sheet
Total Cash (mrq):
N/A
Total Cash Per Share (mrq):
N/A
Total Debt (mrq):
7.33B
Total Debt/Equity (mrq):
0.329
Current Ratio (mrq):
N/A
Book Value Per Share (mrq):
13.93
Cash Flow Statement
Operating Cash Flow (ttm):
N/A
Levered Free Cash Flow (ttm):
N/A
TRADING INFORMATION
Stock Price History
Beta:
N/A
52-Week Change3:
24.20%
S&P500 52-Week Change3:
5.46%
52-Week High (19-Dec-05)3:
16.92
52-Week Low (13-May-05)3:
12.14
50-Day Moving Average3:
15.89
200-Day Moving Average3:
14.52
Share Statistics
Average Volume (3 month)3:
488,788
Average Volume (10 day)3:
383,357
Shares Outstanding:
1.60B
Float:
N/A
% Held by Insiders4:
0.05%
% Held by Institutions4:
6.70%
Shares Short (as of
10-Nov-05)3:
545.69K
Short Ratio (as of
10-Nov-05)3:
1.1
Short % of Float (as of
10-Nov-05)3:
N/A
Shares Short (prior month)3:
717.81K
Dividends & Splits
Forward Annual Dividend Rate5:
0.78
Forward Annual Dividend
Yield5:
4.70%
Trailing Annual Dividend
Rate3:
0.55
Trailing Annual Dividend
Yield3:
3.30%
5 Year Average Dividend
Yield5:
3.00%
Payout Ratio5:
38%
Dividend Date3:
23-Sep-05
Ex-Dividend Date5:
15-Aug-05
Last Split Factor (new per
old)2:
104:100
Last Split Date3:
17-Apr-03
Highlights:
The enterprise Value is significantly
higher than the Market Cap. This shows the stock is undervalued.
The P/E is low compared to the industry,
meaning that the Price is low and earnings high.
The P/S and EV/R are both below 1. Net
income generated from sales increased dramatically this past year. The result is
a price which can not keep up with the rising sales. Though, P/S for this
insurance sector is generally low, AEG's P/S shows the company is grossly
undervalued.
The Revenue per Share is almost double
the current share price.
Quarterly earnings and revenue growth are
up 43.5% and 122.5% respectively.
AEG has three times more equity than debt.
There are very few investors shorting
this stock.
In analyzing when to buy this stock, I refer to several technical analysis
highlights:
AEG hit a break out point (Parabolic SAR)
at $16.70. This often precedes an upward trend.
Bollinger Bands indicate AEG is oversold
at the current time.
However the Money Flow Index and Williams
%R indicate that the stock AEG should be held, instead of bought.
The analyst(s) contributing to this report do not hold any
shares of the analyzed company. Wall Street Wiz Kids EPS and revenue forecasts
are not consensus forecasts. Additionally, the analysts contributing to this
report certify that the views expressed herein accurately reflect the analysts’
personal views as to the subject securities and issuers. Wall Street Wiz Kids
certifies that no part of the analysts’ compensation was, is, or will be,
directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendation or views
expressed by the analyst in the report. Additional information on the securities
mentioned in this report is available upon request. This report is based on data
obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to
accuracy and does not purport to be complete. Because of individual objectives,
the report should not be construed as advice designed to meet the particular
investment needs of any investor. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to
change. This report is not to be construed as an offer or the solicitation of an
offer to buy or sell the securities herein mentioned. Wall Street Wiz Kid or its
officers, employees or customers may have a position long or short in the
securities mentioned and buy or sell the securities from time to time. Wall
Street Wiz Kids uses the following rating system for the securities it covers.
Buy- Wall Street Wiz Kids expects that
the subject company will outperform the broader U.S. equity market over the next
one to two quarters. Hold- Wall Street
Wiz Kid expects that the company will perform in line with the broader U.S.
equity market over the next one to two quarters.
Sell-Wall Street Wiz Kid expects the company
will under perform the broader U.S. Equity market over the next one to two
quarters.
The enterprise Value is significantly
higher than the Market Cap. This shows the stock is undervalued.